Thursday 10th March 2022 is a date that will go down in West Ham history, as Moyes’ men take on Spanish outfit Sevilla in their first ever Europa League knockout fixture. To preview the fixture, Callum Goodall took a closer look at the opposition.
So far, West Ham have made relatively light work of the Europa League, topping Group H with 13 points while scoring 11 goals, conceding three, and losing just one game. This gave Moyes’ side the advantage of progressing directly to the Round of 16 stage where they have been handed arguably the trickiest draw of the bunch, facing up against six-time champions, Sevilla.
The Spanish side come into Thursday’s fixture sitting 2nd in La Liga with the best defensive record in the league. Despite this though, Lopetegui’s men have hit something of a rough patch of late, having been plagued with injuries and only winning three of their last 10 competitive fixtures. They’ve still conceded less than a goal a game on average in this period, but they’ve also struggled to put the ball in the back of the opposition net, scoring just 12 goals in 10 games, three of which came against Dinamo Zagreb.
That injury pileup includes Diego Carlos, Papu Gómez, Suso, Érik Lamela, Gonzalo Montiel, Karim Rekik and Fernando with Thomas Delaney also suspended for the clash at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan Stadium. The flip-side of this, however, is that talismanic talents like Lucas Ocampos and Jules Koundé have recently returned to the first team, whilst West Ham will be without key players Jarrod Bowen, Vladimir Coufal and Angelo Ogbonna.
With all these complexities in mind, who do Sevilla have available that we should be worried about?
Marcos Acuña
We’ll kick things off at the back, the area of the pitch where Sevilla are arguably strongest, boasting the likes of Jules Koundé, Diego Carlos, Gonzalo Montiel, and a 36-year-old Jesús Navas who has been in a rich vein of form this season. Despite their respective qualities, however, it’s Sevilla’s Argentinian left-back, Marcos Acuña, that we’ve decided to turn our attention to. Having made a name for himself at Argentinian outfit, Racing Club, Acuña went on to enjoy an impressive spell in Lisbon with Sporting CP before earning himself a £10 million move to the Andalucian capital in 2020. Now 30 and in his prime, Acuña has been a key player since his arrival, and it’s his undoubted quality that has seen him appear for the Argentinian national team 41 times, including in their 1-0 win against Brazil in the 2021 Copa America final.
Acuña is a very well-rounded fullback, but his biggest threat is arguably his productivity in the final third. Whilst three assists in 1784 league minutes (0.15 assists per 90) in 2021-22 isn’t exactly mind-blowing, it’s still a solid contribution from a player whose attackers have struggled with form and fitness this season; their top scorer is Rafa Mir with 8 league goals, whilst Youssef En-Nesyri has just three goals in 13 La Liga appearances after sustaining a couple of injuries. The most damaging weapon in Acuña’s well-stocked arsenal is surely his crossing, boasting an impressive 43.7% success rate from 5.1 cross attempts per 90 in the league and European competitions this season. To put this into context, Cresswell, a left-back who is frequently lauded for his productivity, has only managed to connect 23.6% of his 3.4 crosses per 90 this season. This gulf in crossing ability is exemplified by the fact that Acuña ranks amongst the top 12% of fullbacks in Europe’s top 5 leagues in 2021-22, whilst Cresswell features in the lowest quartile.
Interestingly, Acuña isn’t even the best crosser in the team. That title belongs to their right-back, Jesús Navas, who has attempted an average of 5.1 crosses per 90 and boasts an incredibly impressive 48.4% success rate, making him the 10th best crosser of all the fullbacks in Europe’s “Top 5” leagues this season. Clearly Sevilla have enough quality in their delivery from both flanks to cause us problems, though in Zouma and Dawson we have two centre-backs who are about as well-suited as a defender can be to defending against aerial bombardment from the wings.
Another strength of Acuña’s is his impressive athletic ability, which allows him to get down the left flank much faster and much more frequently than Cresswell. This superior ball-carrying ability is reflected in the numbers, as is the Argentinian’s tendency to occupy and create from advanced positions in the opposition half, with Acuña clocking considerably more progressive runs (1.9 > 1.2), dribble attempts (4 > 1.2), offensive duels (9.2 > 2.2), passes to the penalty area (5.1 > 2.9), and shot assists (1.5 > 1.1) than Cresswell.
Though this is impressive and certainly something to be wary of, we have waxed lyrical in previous articles about how Cresswell’s real strength in this team is his progression from deep and so it’s worth looking at how Acuña matches up in this respect. The answer is that the two left backs track very similarly in this department, posting almost an almost identical number of progressive passes (MA = 11; AC = 11.4) and passes to the final third (MA = 7.9; AC = 7.6) per 90 whilst also boasting similarly impressive accuracy when passing in general (MA = 83.6%; AC = 82.2%), and when passing to the final third (MA = 67.9%; AC = 69.5). With these numbers in mind, we should expect Acuña to be one of Sevilla’s prime creative outlets on Thursday evening, whether that’s giving Johnson a hard time out on the flank or bringing his teammates into the game with his deep playmaking abilities.
Given how impressive Acuña is going forward, you’d be forgiven for assuming that he lacks a little defensively, as is often the case for more attack-minded fullbacks. Unfortunately for us, Acuña is an exception to this norm and is almost as impressive in defence as he is in attack, which could prove to be a real cause of frustration for us. Using Cresswell as a point of comparison again, someone who has improved defensively in recent times, the two left-backs have both recorded a similar volume of successful defensive actions per 90 (MA = 7.5; AC = 7.7) this season. The breakdown of this rather generic metric is more telling of their defensive styles though, with the Sevilla man recording a higher number of interceptions per 90 when adjusted for position (5.2 > 4.4) but winning a lower percentage of his defensive duels (61.5% < 67.4%). Interestingly though, Acuña fares well when facing dribblers, having only been dribbled past 7 times in La Liga this season, winning 72% of these 1v1 battles.
Given that Bowen won’t be making the journey to Spain thanks to the injury he picked up against Liverpool, Moyes might have trouble finding an attacking midfielder who can get the better of Acuña out on that right flank. Equally, Johnson is going to have his work cut out nullifying the threat of Acuña’s overlapping runs whilst also worrying about the threat posed by Sevilla’s attacking trio.
Joan Jordán
Much has been made in the run-up to this fixture about Sevilla’s lengthy list of absentees, chief amongst whom is Thomas Delaney, arguably Sevilla’s most important central midfielder. And, whilst it is true that his suspension will undoubtedly make things more difficult for the Spanish club, they are still blessed with relatively impressive depth in that area of the pitch. Ivan Rakitić and Óliver are both very capable footballers, but it’s Sevilla’s 27-year-old Catalonian midfielder, Joan Jordán, that we would advise Moyes & Co. to keep an eye on.
Jordán seems to be the player that has really made things tick for Sevilla this season, with Lopetegui relying heavily on his distribution in the middle of the park to spark counters and build attacks. So far in 2021-22, the only Sevilla player to have attempted more passes per 90 than Jordán (61.4) is Jules Koundé (64), which, given Lopetegui’s commitment to playing out from the back, is an impressive feat for the midfielder. An even greater indication of Jordán’s importance in build-up and transition is his 0.1 third assists per 90 – a third assist being the pass before the pass before the assist – which is more than any other Sevilla player.
Lopetegui has good reason to run things through Jordán too, he’s pretty good at passing a football. His underlying passing metrics are impressive and represent a considerable uptick on Delaney’s in terms of both volume and quality. The most obvious difference is in terms of pass completion, with Jordán’s 90% success rate more impressive than Delaney’s 84%. He’s not quite on Lanzini’s level of accuracy (92.5%), but he’s certainly an accomplished distributor who acts as something of a metronome for Sevilla in possession. Beyond that, Jordán also trumps Delaney in both volume (7.6 > 6.2) and quality (80.1% > 66.8%) when passing to the final third, and when making progressive passes (7.3 with 77.1% accuracy > 6.4 with 72.9%). There is, however, an even more progressive member of the midfield three, Óliver Torres, who leads Sevilla’s midfield in progressive passing (7.6 per 90 with 83.9% accuracy), passing to the final third (10 per 90 with 72.2% accuracy), and line-breaking passing (1.1 per 90 with 42.9% accuracy). All this is to say that, despite Delaney’s absence, Sevilla’s midfield is still more than capable of causing us problems as they possess some talented playmakers and, assuming Lopetegui opts for his preferred 4-3-3 formation, there’s a good chance we’ll be outnumbered in the middle of the park too.
This is not to say that the impact of Delaney’s absence is being overstated though, because whilst they’re still likely to be able to knock the ball around nicely with the likes of Torres and Jordán playing, Sevilla will certainly experience something of a drop off defensively without the Danish international in midfield. Delaney has been winning the highest number of defensive duels per 90 (5.5) of any Sevilla player this season, including defenders, though Diego Carlos and Koundé do both boast a higher defensive duel success rate (TD = 69.8%; DC = 72.8%; JK = 71.1%). On top of this, Delaney also chips in with 4.2 interceptions per 90 (6.8 when adjusted for possession), taking his total number of successful defensive actions per 90 up to 9.7, more than any other Sevilla player. To put these numbers into context, Rice has an inferior defensive duel success rate of just 60.2% but clocks more interceptions per 90 (5.15). Obviously, this isn’t to say that Delaney is a better player than Rice, of course he isn’t, but it does reflect his importance in breaking up opposition play.
It’s in this respect that we might look to exploit a Sevilla weakness. Jordán, for all his playmaking abilities, is nowhere near the defender that Delaney is, with an inferior defensive duel success rate (51.8% < 69.8%), pressing success rate (27.2% < 30.8%), and a lower number of interceptions per 90 (3.5 < 4.2). It is Jordán’s form against dribblers that Moyes should really look to take advantage of though, having been beaten 26 times from 44 attempts this season, an unimpressive success rate of just 40.9%. If we can get Lanzini, Vlašić, or even Benrahma receiving the ball in central areas and driving through the middle of the park then we could get the better of Sevilla in this area. Of course, this is a big if given the form of the latter two in recent games, though Lanzini did complete 4 of 4 dribble attempts against Liverpool from deep areas, so this is something we think that Moyes should look to make the most of.
Lucas Ocampos
Now, onto our final player and our second Argentinian international, Lucas Ocampos. Since arriving in Europe from River Plate back in 2012, Ocampos has had something of a nomadic career that saw him turn out for Monaco, Marseille, Genoa, and Milan before he finally found his feet in Sevilla. This season he’s enjoyed a solid vein of form under Lopetegui, overperforming his expected goal tally to bag 7 non-penalty goals and 3 assists whilst featuring on both flanks, though predominantly the left. This is something to be aware of in and of itself, with Ocampos and Acuña making up a very dangerous left-side that could cause us some problems given our weakened right flank.
Beyond the obvious statistics, his underlying numbers can also provide us with a few key takeaways ahead of this evening’s clash. The most glaring observation when looking at Ocampos’ data is the sheer volume of actions he is engaging in per 90, with the Argentinian clocking more shots (2 > 1.4), dribble attempts (6.4 > 2.6), progressive runs (2.5 > 1.5), touches in the opposition box (3.6 > 2), and possession-adjusted interceptions (5.1 > 4.2) than our first-choice left-winger, Pablo Fornals. Ocampos also boasts a superior dribble success rate than Fornals (42.7% > 41.2%) and is even attempting more dribbles than Saïd Benrahma (6.4 > 5.8), a trickiness that helps him to draw two fouls per 90, more than any regular starter for West Ham. These numbers indicate just how important a player Ocampos is in this Sevilla side, with the majority of attacking moves ending with, or at the very least involving, the Argentinian wide man. With Coufal out injured and Johnson showing glimpses of real defensive nous in recent weeks, we should expect the latter to start ahead of Fredericks which, with Acuña on the overlap, could prove to be a really interesting battle.
It’s not just Johnson that is going to have to be on alert for Ocampos either, as his movement in the final third means that he frequently occupies pockets of space where he becomes the central defenders’ responsibility without them even realising. In a similar fashion to Bowen, who averages 3.8 touches in the box per 90 (0.2 more than Ocampos), when an attack is building on the opposite flank and the defence has shifted across in response, Ocampos tends to float into the half space between the penalty spot and the edge of the penalty area, waiting to pick up any rebounds or overhit crosses. And, when he’s in front of goal he is more than capable of causing problems, boasting a better goal conversion rate (13.7%) than Fornals (13.2%), Benrahma (12.9%), and even Bowen (12.3%) who, perhaps unexpectedly, has the worst conversion rate of those players. Ocampos’ exceptional reading of the game has the potential to cause us problems on corners too, with three of his seven goals this season coming from his ability to sniff out pockets of space while the opposition defence scramble, but ultimately fail, to clear the ball effectively. With this in mind, it is going to be essential that all the defence are keeping an eye on him to ensure that he’s never left unmarked. This is even more important when we consider how many goals we have conceded this season thanks to us not clearing the ball properly. Dawson’s reluctance to shift wide and support/cover Johnson has also been an issue for us in recent weeks, most notably against Southampton, so we really need to hope that that line of communication is on point given that there’s the potential for Johnson to be overwhelmed by the Ocampos-Acuña linkup, even more so without the protection that is usually offered by Bowen… might we see Fredericks at right wing?
Whilst Ocampos is undoubtedly a goal threat, he presents less of a concern creatively, though this isn’t to say he can’t provide for his teammates, just that he’s employed as more of a finisher than a creator in Lopetegui’s system. So far this season Ocampos has an expected assist return of just 0.08 per 90, which is less than Fornals (0.15), Bowen (0.2), and Benrahma (0.11). His underlying creative numbers also track poorly when compared to Fornals, notably how many passes to the penalty area he is attempting per 90 (2.2 < 3.6), the accuracy of these passes (42.1% < 61.5%), and how many shot assists he’s clocking each game (0.7 < 1.1). With this in mind, it might be wise to adopt a tactical approach that forces Ocampos into the role of creator rather than finisher, defending the box and frustrating Sevilla into taking lower value shots from outside the box. This is obviously easier said than done, but we can feel reasonably confident in deploying this game plan given that we succeeded in guarding our area at Anfield on Saturday, where their average shot distance was 18.8 yards, as well as against Southampton (22) and Wolves (21.7). Go to Seville, defend the area, hit them on the counter when we can, and bring them back to East London with us in the driving seat.
Jack Elderton 