This January, Callum Goodall and Jack Elderton have gotten together to profile one player a day from a list of players that West Ham could sign throughout the transfer window.
Callum Goodall is a data and recruitment specialist who you may know from his radar charts and megathreads on Twitter where he has produced an excellent scouting series taking a look at players that West Ham could, or should, invest in. We’re lucky to have him for now before he’s snapped up by the club itself.
Jack Elderton is a performance analyst who has taken over production of the recently renewed KUMB Podcast. Here you can find Cal and Jack talking in more depth about West Ham’s form, tactics and transfers each week alongside our match reporter Chris “Wilko1304” Wilkerson.
Listen back to the latest episode here.
Darwin Nunez is a Uruguayan striker currently playing for Benfica in the Portuguese Primeira Liga. He has scored 17 goals in 24 appearances this season.
With Edinson Cavani and Luis Suárez both in their mid-thirties, Uruguay have been in desperate need of a young striker to replace the exceptional quality they’ve had at the top-end of the pitch in recent years. 22-year-old Darwin Núñez appears to be next in line. The Benfica striker has scored 31 goals in 69 games since moving to Portugal and his two goals against Barcelona in the Champions League earlier this season finally secured him the international recognition his performances have deserved.
Originally a youth product of Peñarol, Núñez moved to UD Almería in 2019 for £11.7m, a fee that would make him the all-time record signing for the Spanish Segunda Division. And despite suffering with injury in the first couple of months of the season, Núñez comfortably proved his worth on his return. 16 goals in 30 games may not have been enough to get Almería promoted, they were knocked out at the semi-final stage of the play-offs by Girona, but it was enough to earn the Andalusian club a huge payday when Benfica moved in with a £21.6m bid in the following summer.
And again Núñez showed no issues in adjusting to the hike in level. In fact, in his first five games with the Portuguese giants, the Uruguayan would return five assists and one goal. Things would slow down after this though and following a run of games with minimal returns, Núñez would become more of a bit-part player towards the end of the season, scoring or assisting goals as a late substitute in games against Paços de Ferreira, Portimonense, Nacional and Vitória de Guimarães.
But this season Núñez has shown no inconsistency; with a hat-trick and five braces under his belt already, the Uruguayan has been on fire. Playing as both a striker and a left-winger in either a 352 or 343, Núñez is Benfica’s top scorer so far this season with 17 goals in 25 games in all competitions. And his 12 league goals also make him the second highest scorer in the Portuguese league, two behind Luis Díaz, who left Porto to join Liverpool for £40.5m yesterday.
If you’re wondering why we’re saying 17 goals when everywhere on the internet says 20… Núñez scored three against Belenenses earlier this season, a ludicrous game where the opposition could only field nine players due to covid. The match was abandoned at 7-0 when Belenenses dropped down to six outfield players due to injuries. Those goals don’t count!
With this in mind, it really is no surprise that Darwin Núñez has built such a stellar reputation over the last eighteen months, establishing himself as one of the hottest young prospects in European football. Recording double figure goal returns in each of the last three seasons at such a young age is no mean feat. Núñez’s underlying shooting metrics are hugely impressive too with the Uruguayan striker taking an average of 2.7 shots per 90 and finding the target 53.5% of the time, considerably more impressive than Antonio’s 36.2% accuracy from 2.3 shots. It’s Núñez’s goal conversion rate of 34.9% that really sets him apart though, outperforming Antonio (15.5%) by almost 20% and scoring with every third shot.
Beyond his clinical finishing, Núñez’s fine form in front of goal can also be attributed in part to his ability to occupy dangerous positions in the penalty area. Averaging 6.2 touches in the box per 90, 1.9 more than Antonio (4.3), his instinctive positional awareness has resulted in Núñez racking up a combined expected goal tally of 9.1 in the Portuguese Primeira Liga and Champions League this season, equating to 0.58 xG per 90, more than Antonio’s 0.4. And given his excellent finishing, Núñez is overperforming his xG by a remarkable 0.37 per 90, a significant uptick on Antonio’s 0.05 per 90 underperformance. There is a caveat to this though and that’s that this level of overperformance in front of goal is very likely unsustainable. Robert Lewandowski is broadly considered to be the strongest finisher in Europe’s Top Five Leagues and the Pole is overperforming his xG by 0.17 so far this season, an incredibly strong return. Unless Núñez is going to go on to be one of the greatest strikers of all time, there will undoubtedly be some regression in his outstanding finishing form. And Núñez has also consistently struggled to score against the Primeira Liga’s better sides. Since signing for Benfica, the Uruguayan has failed to score a single goal in the 445 minutes he has played against Sporting CP and Porto but has padded out his goal tally by terrorising inferior teams. With 12 goals in 624 minutes against teams that are currently in the bottom half of the Primeira Liga, Núñez is scoring a whopping 1.92 goals per 90 against weaker opposition, compared to 0 per 90 against top opposition. In fairness, Núñez did score a brace against Barcelona in the Champions League, as well as a consolation goal against Bayern Munich, but this doesn’t detract from the otherwise worrying trend in his Primeira Liga goalscoring record.
Standing at 6’2” tall, Núñez is helped by his striking physical profile. This season he has regularly showcased his ability to hold off defenders in the box and on the break and his dangerous mix of pace and power make him an effective carrier of the ball too, capable of gliding past defenders on counter-attacks. We’ve already discussed how crucial Antonio’s ball-carrying ability is to this current West Ham side with the Jamaican recording an average of 1.9 progressive runs per 90, a very solid return for a striker that only Armando Broja (2.1) can beat (of Premier League strikers that have recorded 1000 minutes). Incredibly, Núñez is clocking up 2.7 progressive runs per 90 this season in the Primeira Liga, 0.8 more than Antonio has managed in the Premier League. And Núñez is also an accomplished dribbler, comfortable taking on players while carrying the ball forwards. Averaging more dribble attempts (6.24) than Antonio (5.45) with a similar but marginally worse rate of success (51% < 53.9%), Núñez would surely be comfortable in taking on the role that Antonio performs in Moyes’ side. And bringing in a striker who would allow us to continue to be such a threat on the counter when Antonio isn’t on the pitch would be a big positive.
Of course, the quality of the league has to be taken into account when looking at his metrics but Núñez managed four and five progressive runs in the two games against Barcelona, and a further two at home against Bayern Munich, maintaining a dribble success rate of more than 50% in all three games. Núñez is aided here though by his tendency to receive in the wide areas. Often deployed in a front two, Núñez likes to drift onto the left flank to receive forward passes from teammates. 68% of the passes he has received in the opposition half when playing as a striker in the Primeira Liga this season have come on the left flank, with a further 21% coming on the right. And with 89% of his received passes occurring in the wide spaces, it’s easier for Núñez to turn and carry the ball forwards, much like Antonio who receives the ball in the wide zones 86% of the time. In Núñez, West Ham wouldn’t be recruiting a more central striker, like Sébastien Haller who has received the ball in the wide zones just 51% of the time in the Eredivisie this season, but someone who is more comfortable in drifting wide and working the channels.
As we’ve said many times already this window, one of Antonio’s biggest strengths is his ability to bring his teammates into the game, as is reflected by his eight assists in all competitions for West Ham this season. In fact, Antonio is recording the best expected assist return per 90 amongst all strikers in the Premier League to have played more than 1000 minutes in 2021-22 (0.16). And despite only providing two assists this season for Benfica, Núñez has recorded 0.17 xA per 90, a figure that would see him leapfrog Antonio as the Premier League’s most creative striker in terms of xA. Even so, looking beyond this metric makes it clear that Núñez can still improve as a creative outlet with the Uruguayan recording less shot assists (1.2 < 1.3) and passes to the penalty area per 90 (1.8 < 2.2) than Antonio. This is exciting though because the fact that he has recorded an identical number of key passes (0.7) and a superior xA suggests that with continued development he could end up being as much of a creative threat as he is a deadeyed finisher, a hugely enticing prospect.
The key issue with any prospective deal for Núñez is the huge asking price to extract the striker from Lisbon. With Benfica demanding a fee in excess of £50m for Núñez, it’s hard to see how this would represent value for money. At just 22, Núñez has a long road of development ahead of him and could definitely become one of the best strikers in Europe but that’s speculating on potential and Benfica get to decide how much that potential is worth. At the moment they seem to value it at £30m+ given that Núñez’s real market value would be somewhere more in the £20-£25m range. Can a team like West Ham really afford to spend quite so much money on who a player might become in the future?
Cal’s rating: B+
Núñez is clearly a gifted player. He’s got all the physical attributes we would want in a striker, as was a real eye for goal, the ability to carry the ball on the counter, and to provide for his teammates. That said, regardless of his undoubted potential, £50m still feels steep for a player who has struggled to bag against Portugal’s top teams, particularly when players like Cabral have moved for much less this window.
Jack’s rating: B+
Núñez’s comfortability in operating in the channels and combination of pace, strength and finishing ability make him an hugely exciting prospect. The issue for me is over whether the fee represents value. Adam Hložek has been similarly good in the Czech league and is available for three times less the fee reported to be required to extract Núñez from Benfica…
Jack Elderton 