This January Callum Goodall and Jack Elderton have gotten together to profile one player a day from a list of players that West Ham could sign throughout the transfer window.
Callum Goodall is a data and recruitment specialist who you may know from his radar charts and megathreads on Twitter where he has produced an excellent scouting series taking a look at players that West Ham could, or should, invest in. We’re lucky to have him for now before he’s snapped up by the club itself.
Jack Elderton is a player performance analyst specialising in roles and tactics who has taken over production of the recently renewed KUMB Podcast. Here you can find Cal and Jack talking in more depth about West Ham’s form, tactics and transfers each week alongside our match reporter Chris “Wilko1304” Wilkerson.
Listen back to the latest episode here.
Marc-Oliver Kempf is a 26 year-old German centre-back currently playing for VFB Stuttgart in the German Bundesliga. He is someone we have been tracking for some time and would like to put forward as an option.
Over the course of the festive period, with Angelo Ogbonna and Kurt Zouma both injured, centre-back has emerged as a clear priority for West Ham’s recruitment department.
Although it’s generally unexpected that any team would have to regularly play both second-choice centre-backs as a partnership in the league, West Ham may need to improve on Craig Dawson and Issa Diop with a shot at European qualification on the cards and with first-choice left-centre-back Ogbonna sure to be out for the rest of the season with a knee ligament injury.
There are three ways in which West Ham could pivot in this situation from a recruitment perspective.
1. Not sign anyone and rely on the three centre-backs that would hopefully remain available for much of what remains of the season.
2. Sign an improved second-choice left-centre-back with plans to reintroduce Ogbonna to the first eleven when he returns from injury.
3. Sign a top quality left-centre-back and let Ogbonna and Diop, the two current left-centre-backs at the club, fight it out for the second slot.
Marc-Oliver Kempf is someone we’ve picked out that could fit the second of these options.
Currently playing for Stuttgart after his move from Freiburg in 2018, Kempf is a physically imposing but equally talented ball-playing left-sided centre-back.
Beginning his career in the youth ranks at Eintracht Frankfurt, Kempf played at every international youth level for Germany and racked up 49 caps across various age groups before moving on to Freiburg to nail a first-team place in the Bundesliga. Now 26, he is entering the last six months of his contract with Stuttgart which makes it a perfect time to launch a bid with the chance of agreeing a cut-price deal.
As we touched upon in our Lloyd Kelly article, there are three key areas that West Ham should be considering when signing a new left-sided centre-back; defensive ability, aerial ability and progressive ability in possession. Thankfully, Kempf comes up well in each of these departments and it’s his consistently impressive metrics over the last couple of seasons that brought him to our attention.
The most eye-catching of Kempf’s numbers is his successful defensive action tally, a metric that combines successful slide tackles, defensive duels, and interceptions. This season, Kempf is averaging 12.88 defensive actions per 90, putting him in the top 4% of all centre-backs that have played more than 500 minutes in Europe’s Top 5 Leagues. Whilst Kempf’s volume of actions is impressive, volume is not a true reflection of defensive competency as a player in a team with limited possession will naturally record more defensive actions than those in more possession-dominant sides would. That said, Stuttgart have averaged 52.4% possession this season and upwards of 50% in the two seasons prior.
A better indication of defensive ability is a player’s defensive duel success rate as this measures efficacy rather than volume. So far this season, Kempf has won 67.59% of the 9.21 defensive duels he’s engaged in per 90, a 4.3% improvement on Ogbonna despite taking part in more than double the number of duels. Maintaining such a respectable success rate whilst also being such an active defender is impressive.
His other defensive metrics this season also indicate that he is quite an aggressive centre-back, with 8.48 possession-adjusted interceptions and an average of 1.19 shots blocked per 90. These numbers, along with the sheer volume of defensive actions Kempf is recording each game, show that he clearly isn’t afraid to get involved and put his body on the line. Given Moyes’ preference to defend the box and how frequently we’ve seen Dawson throwing himself in front of the ball in recent months, you would imagine that someone with Kempf’s defensive skills and style would fit in well at West Ham.
Whilst Kempf’s numbers show that he is no stranger to defending the box when the ball is on the deck, his aerial ability is less outstanding. This season Kempf has a fairly unremarkable aerial duel success rate of 59.38%, though this figure is almost identical to Ogbonna’s so it shouldn’t be too much of a concern. He’s also chipped in with three headed goals already and we all know that anyone that can score a goal with their head is going to be welcomed by Moyes with open arms.
Kempf would contribute a lot in our build-up too, having been far more involved in possessional phases at Stuttgart than Ogbonna has been for West Ham. Kempf is currently attempting 11.26 progressive passes per 90 with a success rate of 74.24%. This equates to 8 passes that advance the ball at least 15 metres closer to the opponent’s goal in each game. And considering how noticeable Ogbonna’s absence has been in build-up, a player who contributes half the number of Kempf’s progressive passes per 90, it’s exciting to think about what Kempf could bring to our backline.
The progressive ability that Kempf has displayed is even more impressive when you consider the fact that he is doing all of this in a league where the average number of possession-adjusted team pressures (155.26) is considerably higher than in the Premier League (144.26). Given that we have often struggled to play our way through a press this season, Kempf’s abilities and experience of playing in Germany could prove to be very valuable, adding composure in build-up.
While the numbers clearly make for positive reading, there are some counterbalancing issues surrounding Kempf that must be noted. The first of these is the fact that he has largely been deployed on the left of a back three at Stuttgart and hasn’t had a chance to prove his capability or otherwise of playing in a back four in a top flight season (the last time that he played in a four regularly was when captaining Stuttgart in the second division).
Secondly, and perhaps even more importantly, Kempf has had a long string of small injury issues throughout his career. While a meniscus problem in 2016-17 is Kempf’s only major injury, he has since missed 39 games with small niggles and muscle injuries. Given our issues in the position this season, it may be unwise to bring in a player with a well-documented history of fitness problems.
Jack’s Rating: C-
Kempf’s numbers are very promising but his repeated fitness issues combined with the fact that he rarely ever plays in a back four raise major concerns around his suitability. Just take a look at Antonio Rudiger’s form in a back three when compared to a four for evidence of how crucial it is that players are used in their preferred roles.
Cal’s Rating: B+
A good, left-footed defender in his prime years with top flight experience and a hunger to break into the national team that is available on a cut-price deal. Yes, there are some concerns, but if he can stay fit and can perform in a back four then this could prove to be shrewd, low-risk business.
Jack Elderton 