West Ham’s ninth European campaign will begin tomorrow evening in Croatia against Dinamo Zagreb. Callum Goodall and Jack Elderton got together to provide some insight into the opposition.
Prva HNL Champions for the last four consecutive seasons and winners of 15 of the last 16 seasons, GNK Dinamo Zagreb are likely the toughest opposition that West Ham will face in Group H of the Europa League.
Damir Krznar’s side have been in strong form domestically but have struggled so far in Europe, scraping past Legia Warsaw in the Champions League Second Qualifying Round before being summarily dumped out of the tournament and into the Europa League by Moldova’s Sheriff Tiraspol – the first Moldovan club to qualify for the Champions League.
There are a few names you may be familiar with here. French defender Kévin Théophile-Catherine made 28 appearances for Cardiff City in the 2013-14 Premier League season, goalkeeper Dominik Livaković started for Croatia in England’s opening fixture of Euro 2020 and Mislav Oršić is recently-famed for his hat-trick that sent Spurs packing in the Europa League last season.
As is the case for any club at an equivalent level to Dinamo Zagreb, continual rebuilds are often in play as the best young talent is usually pinched by the more reputable European divisions. And this season will be no different for Dinamo who lost both Josko Gvardiol and Lovro Majer in the summer to Leipzig and Rennes.
Fortunately for Krznar and his team, they are still blessed with a few exceptionally talented players…
Mislav Oršić , LW, 28
Perhaps the biggest attacking threat in this Dinamo Zagreb side, Mislav Orsic returned 16 goals and seven assists in the league last season alongside a further six goals and two assists in the Europa League. He maintained a very healthy goal-every-other-game rate across both competitions throughout the 2020/21 season, ending the campaign with the same goals per 90 as Antonio (0.48). And his two goals in four domestic appearances so far this season point towards a continuation of the fine form that saw him linked with a move to Arsenal this summer.
So far this season Oršić is averaging 4.06 shots per 90, almost double that of their main striker, Bruno Petković, clearly marking him out as Zagreb’s primary goal-scoring outlet. Interestingly, Oršić is also outperforming every West Ham attacker in the shooting department, including Antonio, our leading shot-taker with 3.19 shots per 90 this season. That said, Antonio’s goal conversion rate of 25% is superior to that of Oršić’s (8.33%), whose shots hit the target half as often as Antonio’s (50%).
Comparatively, Bowen is perhaps the most stylistically similar player to Oršić that we have. Both play on the wing with their stronger foot on the inside, preferring to cut in and drive towards the goal or fire off a shot. The two of them attempt a similar number of dribbles (MO: 5.16; JB: 4.58) per 90 and both average 3.05 touches in the opposition penalty area. Bowen’s dribble success rate (50%) is better than Oršić’s (40.98%), but the latter averages almost double the amount of progressive runs per 90 (2.96 vs 1.53).
What does all this tell us? That Dinamo Zagreb’s attack is run through Oršić and that he should, therefore, be paid a good deal of attention in Thursday evening’s fixture. The frequent shot-taking and low goal conversion rate could be indicative of an over reliance on Oršić, where Zagreb are banking on getting a decent goal return from low-probability shots.
With this in mind, it’s fair to assume that nullifying Oršić’s threat gives us the best chance of getting a result in Croatia – luckily we have a half-decent Czech RB. Coufal did look like he could do with a rest as we limped over the line against Southampton last weekend but with such a dangerous left-sided winger lining up for the opposition tomorrow night it’ll be interesting to see how Moyes responds.
Dominik Livaković, GK, 26
Having firmly established himself as Croatia’s number one keeper, it’s somewhat surprising that Dominik Livaković remains in the domestic league. Similar to Oršić at the other end of the pitch, Livaković has managed to keep up an outstanding 50% clean sheet rate for Dinamo across his 200 appearances for the club.
Livaković overperformed his expected goals conceded per 90 by 0.26 over the course of the last year which has him in the 99th percentile of all goalkeepers, beaten only by Liverpool’s Alisson who boasts an even more impressive 0.27. Unsurprisingly, the Croatian #1 also features in the 99th percentile for save percentage, saving a whopping 83.7% of shots, and in the 98th percentile for goals against, conceding only 0.78 goals per 90.
Based on the evidence it would be hard to argue against the notion that Livaković is an elite keeper who keeps good company in the upper percentiles of goalkeeping metrics. There is one caveat to this point, however, and that is that he only features in the 4th percentile for PSxG/SoT, an indicator of shot difficulty, with 0.24. That said, Edouard Mendy’s 0.22 is the lowest performance in this metric and no one would dispute that he is still a great goalkeeper. As the old saying goes (kind of), “you can only save the shots you face”.
Livaković doesn’t have many weaknesses, but there are two areas of his game that he is certainly less comfortable in that we would be wise to try and exploit. Firstly, in the last calendar year he has only engaged in 0.2 aerial duels per 90 and in those duels he has only managed to stop 5% of crosses, putting him in the 10th percentile. This seems an obvious weakness for Moyes to try and capitalise on given that we have very good crossers of the ball in Cresswell and Coufal, and serious aerial might with the likes of Souček, Antonio, Ogbonna, Dawson, Zouma and Diop all available for selection.
The second area of weakness is his ball-playing ability, the long and short of it being that Livaković is not a sweeper keeper. It would be fair to assume that the most obvious indicator of a ball-playing keeper is the number of touches they have per 90, but this is not the case – Livaković averages 35.65, whereas Ederson only averages 30.62. Instead, it’s all about what a keeper does when they have the ball. The first sign of a non-ball-confident keeper is their launch percentage (how often they choose a long kick over a short pass) and Livakovic’s 62.5% puts him in the 91st percentile. For the sake of comparison, Ederson launches 25.2% of the time (7th percentile) and Alisson 23.1% (3rd percentile). It has to be noted, however, that this tendency to launch the ball could be down to the fact they’ve got an aerial powerhouse up top in Bruno Petković – think Adrián to Carroll under Allardyce.
The second indicator is the number of defensive actions that take place outside of the penalty area, as well as the average distance of their defensive actions. Livaković averages 0.18 non-penalty area defensive actions per 90 (1st percentile), with an average distance of 12.9 yards (11th percentile). Comparatively, Alisson averages 1.3 non-penalty area defensive actions per 90 (93rd percentile), with an average distance of 17.8 yards (96th percentile). With this in mind, if we can a) get Rice and Fornals playing balls in behind that compel Livaković to leave his line and b) put him under pressure by pressing aggressively in the final third then we could force an error that may lead to a goal.
There is no doubt in my mind that Livaković is a first-class goalkeeper with elite shot-stopping abilities and there is absolutely a place for him in Europe’s top leagues. Interestingly, his fine form earned him a spot on Wolves’ shortlist to replace Rui Patrício, but the club opted for José Sá instead, confirming that Jorge Mendes’ influence at the club transcends Nuno. Despite his strengths, however, there are facets of his game that he does not excel in, and it is these areas of weakness that Moyes and Co. will hopefully have identified and look to exploit this evening.
Luka Ivanušec, AM, 22
Ivanušec is arguably Zagreb’s most valuable and promising asset, having contributed 12 goals and 6 assists in 2020/21 at just 21-years-old, including 1 of each in the Europa League. A case could be made for Livakovic being more valuable given his qualities, age, and international experience, but not for Oršić – I think a 22-year-old Ivanušec would go for a loftier fee than their 28-year-old talisman, though it’s uncertain who has the higher ceiling.
One of Ivanušec’s biggest strengths is his versatility, something we know that Moyes himself likes to have in his players, and it will be interesting to see where Damir Krznar decides to play him tonight having already deployed him at CM, AM and RW in the 1100 minutes he’s played for Zagreb so far this season. His ability on the ball makes him a real danger bringing the ball up the pitch from deep, so it wouldn’t be too surprising if Krznar were to play him as the most advanced CM in a 4-3-3 in an attempt to overwhelm our 2-man midfield. Equally though, he meant fancy his chances out on the RW running at either a solid but ageing Cresswell, a barely fit Masuaku, or an inexperienced Johnson.
As mentioned above, Ivanušec is a primary ball-carrier in Krznar’s team, clocking 3.44 progressive runs per 90 so far this season which is pretty much a continuation of his 2020/21 form when he averaged 3.62. His dribbling ability is also noteworthy, attempting 5.91 dribbles per 90 and succeeding in 57% of them. With this in mind, it’s fair to assume that Ivanušec will be instructed to run at Cresswell who, for all his positives, is not the fastest, nor the best one-on-one defender. One way to shore this up could be to play Cresswell at LCB in a back 5 with Masuaku/Johnson at LWB, providing extra cover against the pace and trickery of Ivanušec. Whilst this would likely be effective, it would also be quite a negative tactic to deploy against what has to be considered an inferior team.
One other part of Ivanušec’s game that stands out is his passing in the final third, a quality which has already seen him get a clever assist in the Prva HNL this season. Ivanušec has an 87.34% success rate when passing into the final third in the last calendar year, beating Fornals (72.07%), Benrahma (70.18%), and Souček (72.54%). Not only did he outperform these players, he also attempted more passes into the final third, bar Souček, with 5.14. The only player to trump Ivanušec in this department is Rice, who boasts more attempted passes (6.63) and better accuracy (88.59%), though we all know how elite Rice is. The volume of these passes could in part be down to the fact that Ivanušec was often deployed in a deeper position than the likes of Fornals and Benrahma last season. Nonetheless, the accuracy of his passing into the final third warrants attention regardless of where the passes are played from, particularly if Moyes decides to start our less pacy CBs this evening – sorry Dawson.
Dinamo Zagreb are not to be underrated. This evening’s match will be a stern test but a good opportunity to put an early marker down in the group. Yes, we looked sluggish at times against Southampton but those who fought to get us into Europe last season will be fired up for tonight and those that are trying to win a place in the side will be desperate to impress.
The bottom line is that this is the first chance to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke and that this isn’t a victory lap – a chance to prove that this is where this team belongs.
West Ham predicted lineup: Areola; Coufal, Zouma, Ogbonna, Cresswell; Noble, Rice; Bowen, Vlasic, Fornals; Antonio
Callum’s predicted score: Dinamo Zagreb 1-2 West Ham
Jack’s predicted score: Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 West Ham
All rights reserved. Jack Elderton. 2020. Statistical input taken from Wyscout & Fbref (Statsbomb).
Jack Elderton 