Another gameweek, another Change Rankings update. This time there has been quite a lot of movement as the table was rebalanced and new results were added.
| POS | TEAM | CHANGE |
| 1 | ASTON VILLA | 67% |
| 2 | WEST HAM UTD | 38% |
| 3 | BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION | 20% |
| 4 | ARSENAL | 18% |
| 5 | TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR | 13% |
| 6 | CRYSTAL PALACE | 12% |
| 7 | LEICESTER CITY | 8% |
| 8 | CHELSEA | 7% |
| 9 | EVERTON | 4% |
| 10 | SOUTHAMPTON | -4% |
| 11 | MANCHESTER UTD | -4% |
| 12 | NEWCASTLE UTD | -4% |
| 13 | LIVERPOOL | -10% |
| 14 | BURNLEY | -17% |
| 15 | MANCHESTER CITY | -18% |
| 16 | WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS | -18% |
| 17 | SHEFFIELD UTD | -47% |
The Winners
Arsenal: +9
Arsenal’s 4-0 thrashing of West Brom in the Saturday night snow indicated that the Gunners are finally moving in the right direction again. The Change Rankings model has always brought out the slow improvements that Arsenal have been making in defence while showing that there has been little improvement going forward. This has kept them hovering around the zero line for most of the season so far.
But Emile Smith-Rowe’s inclusion as the 10 in a 4-2-3-1 built on that slowly developing defensive unit has finally given Arsenal much needed spark in attack. His link-play between the defensive unit and the attacking unit, which have looked horribly disconnected for large stretches save for a few swashbuckling Bukayo Saka runs, has finally allowed Arsenal to bring their talented forwards into the game in the areas within which they can affect it the most.
And Alexandre Lacazette is the man reaping the rewards right now. Finally released to be a penalty-box striker, rather than being forced to drop deep and link-play while teammates look to find Aubameyang’s runs in behind, Lacazette has four goals in his last three appearances. This dramatic upturn in results should bring about the death of the old system which has failed as Aubameyang’s impact has waned and Willian’s arrival hasn’t brought the required creativity.
Arteta’s side had previously lacked balance and looked as though they were stumbling along, relying on individual moments of brilliance and a fading hope in Aubameyang to turn it on and save the day. Now, with a developing confidence in the system and personnel and a catalyst for momentum in the form of youngsters Saka, Smith-Rowe and the returning Martinelli, there is room to be positive once again.
West Ham: +8
West Ham just keep doing this don’t they? It began with Lanzini’s last minute strike to earn a point at White Hart Lane. Then there was Soucek’s added-time prodded finish to secure a win over Fulham. Then Ogbonna’s late header to take the three points against Leeds. And now Soucek has done it again with an 86th minute poacher’s goal to nick victory away at Everton.
At some point, when Moyes’ side keep “nicking” these positive results, you have to begin to question whether it is actually more judgement than luck.
With just a cursory look at Moyes’ results with Everton between 2006 and 2013, a period where Everton finished no lower than eighth, you begin to see little runs of 2-1s and 1-0s with a headed goal or rebound finish to win it in the second half. The principle is simple. Defend well as a unit, win second balls and exploit set-pieces. Sound familiar?
And in this particular 1-0, Angelo Ogbonna was excellent again as he got on the end of anything and everything that came into the box to send it right back out. West Ham may also have finally found an unlikely but perfectly complementary partner to the Italian in Craig Dawson. The on-loan defender from Watford has shown a dominance in the air, winning 100% of his aerial duels in his two appearances so far, that blends well with Moyes’ defensive set-up of funnelling the opponents into the wide zones and accepting the concession of a few crosses on the basis that his centre-halves will win the aerial battle.
Dawson and Ogbonna may have only played twice together but have secured two clean sheets against some of the league’s most in-form attacking units in Southampton and Everton. Solid.
Manchester City: +7
Pep’s side looked back to their very best as they dismantled a limp Chelsea in a 3-1 win that flattered Lampard’s Blues. Defending in what looked like a pretty classic 4-5-1 with Kevin De Bruyne leading the line, Chelsea found it incredibly difficult to find any space in forward areas and regularly left themselves exposed defensively as the full-backs pushed on to try and assist in attacks.
And City exploited this brilliantly with beautifully quick transitions into counter-attacks where Foden and Gundogan had the time of their lives against Azpilicueta and Kovacic.
Stones’ continued excellent form following his reintegration into the first eleven alongside Ruben Dias has seen the defence go up a level and although the numbers point to more of a continuation of form (City have conceded one more goal than they did last season in corresponding fixtures) the eye-test says something far more positive.
City now look to have the kind of solid base they have lacked since Vincent Kompany’s departure and if they can build on the dynamism and fluidity of the attacking performance they got here, while continuing to squeeze more out of players like Foden and Gundogan, they could soon find themselves in pole position. Especially with those two games in hand.
The Losers
Chelsea: -10
A hapless performance summed up by City’s third goal where somehow only Kante was left back from a wide free-kick. Once he failed to keep possession following Rodri’s headed clearance, Sterling momentarily had the entire Chelsea half to himself before eventually seeing his shot rebound off the post and into De Bruyne’s path. Incredible touch and finish, by the way.
Anyhow, these kind of mistakes aren’t made by teams that fight for titles and Lampard may have come out with “fighting talk” post-game alongside an insistence on the idea that this is a season for development, but it’s hard to argue his case when such glaring errors are made in big games like this.
Still yet to get the best out of mega-money summer signings Havertz and Werner, although it is important to note that the former has had a season interrupted by Covid, you do begin to wonder at what point an owner as cutthroat as Abramovich begins to look elsewhere. And it came as no surprise when The Athletic reported, just after full-time, that Lampard’s job was under threat.
With Fulham next before a difficult run of fixtures with Leicester, Wolves and Spurs all to play in the following four, this could be a make or break period for Frank’s managerial career at Chelsea.
Everton: -10
Despite putting in a battling performance in a mostly nothing-game against West Ham, Everton were the latest to fall foul to Tomas Soucek’s goalscoring instincts. But here they did really miss some of the attacking energy and enthusiasm they were able to capture earlier in the season.
Without James Rodriguez to provide creativity to the forward line, Everton were lacklustre going forward. Calvert-Lewin looked knackered, while wingers Richarlison and Bernard struggled to get any change out of either Cresswell or Coufal. And although Tom Davies did provide lots of running in the middle, his sometimes reckless, sometimes hapless decision making meant that the presence of Allan was sorely missed.
Perhaps most disappointing though was the performance of Gylfi Sigurdsson. The Icelandic number 10 looked utterly devoid of ideas for most of his 64 minutes and found himself regularly firing off genuinely lazy backwards passes in moments where he could’ve turned and attempted to find runs ahead of him. Out of his 29 accurate passes, just three went forwards…
Ancelotti will be hoping for the return of some of those first-teamers as soon as possible because Friday night’s performance and result served to shine an all-too-bright spotlight on the deficiencies of the back-ups.
Aston Villa: -9
Don’t worry. This isn’t going to be a few paragraphs on how poor Villa have been because, well, it would be completely factually incorrect to suggest anything of the sort. In fact, Villa are slight victims of their own success here.
The big markdown comes as a result of the fact that they actually got a 2-2 draw away at Old Trafford last season. And though they were close to repeating the feat this time, they instead found David De Gea in excellent form. And as Watkins continues to struggle to overcome his sudden hoodoo in front of goal, they couldn’t make the most of some real positive moments around the United box.
It’s no goal in eight now for the Villa marksman and the supporting cast can’t be expected to continue to produce wonders to compensate for the lack of goals coming from up-top. If Villa are to continue to dominate the Change Rankings table and push up the Premier League at the same time, then they need Watkins to recapture his best goalscoring form and quickly.
Points Adjusted Table
All rights reserved. Jack Elderton. 2020. Statistical input taken from Wyscout & Fbref (Statsbomb).
Jack Elderton 