| POS | TEAM | CHANGE |
| 1 | ASTON VILLA | 63% |
| 2 | WEST HAM UTD | 63% |
| 3 | BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION | 49% |
| 4 | CHELSEA | 38% |
| 5 | TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR | 30% |
| 6 | LEICESTER CITY | 18% |
| 7 | CRYSTAL PALACE | 16% |
| 8 | EVERTON | 5% |
| 9 | SOUTHAMPTON | -1% |
| 10 | ARSENAL | -1% |
| 11 | NEWCASTLE UTD | -1% |
| 12 | LIVERPOOL | -10% |
| 13 | MANCHESTER UTD | -13% |
| 14 | BURNLEY | -24% |
| 15 | WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS | -26% |
| 16 | MANCHESTER CITY | -27% |
| 17 | SHEFFIELD UTD | -46% |
This week’s first update sees Aston Villa soaring up the table into top spot, above West Ham by just a few decimal places, following their away win at Wolves. An extremely bitty game fittingly settled by El Ghazi’s well-taken late penalty. West Ham’s win, also away, at Leeds wasn’t quite enough to keep them top as they fell to second.
Chelsea fell to fourth following their loss to Everton, a game in which they kept up their record of having not beaten any of the sides currently in the top-half of the Premier League. And Newcastle hopped up a couple of places after Dwight Gayle’s late winner helped them record a win over newly-promoted West Brom.
As this is the first full update for the Premier League Change Rankings (CR), I thought I’d do a little rundown of the two most-progressed sides so far this season.
Aston Villa
Up 63% and top of the CR table after GW12.
Following their marginal survival on the final day of last season, the only possible direction in which Villa could go (it was hard to see how they could get any worse) was up. And after a summer of good recruitment we’re witnessing a remarkable turnaround.
Martinez has brought assuredness to a previously shaky defensive line and the acquisition of Matty Cash has allowed for Ezri Konsa to return to a more familiar right-sided centre-half role where he has since excelled. McGinn’s return to the midfield-base to partner Douglas Luiz provides an excellent screen for that defensive unit and it makes you wonder whether Villa could have steered further clear of the scrap at the bottom last season had McGinn not spent such a long period out injured.
Their improvements have not only been in defence though. The inclusion of Ross Barkley in the 10 spot has provided much needed balance to a previously lopsided attack and the arrival of some intelligent running and clinical finishing up-front via Ollie Watkins has helped them progress hugely. With Grealish continuing to deliver there’s an exciting blend of attacking talent at the top end of the pitch.
This is all evidenced by a 50% increase and 43% reduction to their xG90 and xGA90 averages respectively. A huge upgrade on last term’s performances.
Importantly, the improvement in performance has been translating into positive outcomes as well. They’ve scored seven more goals and conceded six less than they had in the corresponding fixtures from last season with very impressive results coming against Liverpool, Leicester, Arsenal and Wolves. Four losses last season, four wins and three clean sheets this. All of that translates into points and progression in the table and Villa are up ten points on where they would have been last season. A very impressive start.
West Ham
Second in the CR table and also up 63%.
Another side that barely escaped relegation last season that have been a revelation thus far this term. Here, the changes to the xG/xGA90 figures are more marginal than they are in Villa’s case but still represent a marked improvement in performance.
West Ham are up 29% on xG90 and 8% on xGA90 following a switch to a back-five system that has provided Moyes’ side with a much stronger base to build from. The defence looks far more organised and confident and there has been a remarkable rejuvenation in form for Masuaku, Cresswell and Balbuena alongside the consistent leading-presence of Angelo Ogbonna. A couple of additions from Slavia Prague have helped too as “Czech-mates” Coufal and Soucek have both represented significant upgrades on their predecessors. In fact, they have provided the exact kind of steel, determination and work-ethic that we used to associate with Moyes’ Everton.
The new system has worked going the other way too. Bowen and Fornals have been able to operate further forward rather than doubling up as auxiliary full-backs and have been marauding in off each flank to great effect. And Cresswell, now playing in a left-sided-centre-half role, has been able to utilise his unquestionable crossing ability from deeper positions to provide for Haller, Antonio or a late run from the aforementioned Soucek.
In terms of outcomes it’s all positive too. Eight more goals scored and nine fewer conceded point to a huge improvement at both ends of the pitch.
When the fixtures initially came out, West Ham fans thought they’d be lucky to pick up a point between GW2 and GW8 with games against four of the “big-six” alongside Wolves and Leicester in that period. In reality, West Ham would return eight points from those fixtures and record impressive wins and clean sheets against Wolves and Leicester alongside draws to Spurs and Man City. Even the two defeats were extremely close games in which they could feel slightly unfortunate to have come out on the losing side.
Following that tough run, their form has continued and as of now, West Ham are up twelve points compared to results in corresponding fixtures from last season.
All rights reserved. Jack Elderton. 2020. Statistical input taken from Wyscout & Fbref (Statsbomb).
Jack Elderton 