“Change Rankings” is a concept I came up with at the beginning of the 2020/21 season whilst wading through huge amounts of absolutely brilliant analysis on players and teams using all kinds of data comparisons. I found myself wanting for something a little more… Fun.
The question is often posed, who is the best? And if the item we are analysing isn’t the best, then how far away from being the best are they?
Liverpool have scored the most, Spurs have conceded the least, Man City have had the most possession and Burnley have made the least substitutions. So we can hazard that Liverpool have the best performing attack, Spurs have the best performing defence, Man City have the most control of games and Sean Dyche really doesn’t appreciate any plans to introduce five subs.
As fans of non-top-six sides struggle through these metrics and tables wondering if their side might dare to appear near the top anywhere I despair at the obvious, and equally depressing fact, that not only can you buy the league but it turns out you can buy all of the supporting evidence too. Every table, every graph and every Twitter meme that goes with it.
So, it was time to start thinking about fairer ways in which we could compare teams like Brighton to teams like Liverpool.
Brighton are actually second in the xGA90 table right now (8.12.20), way above Liverpool, cheers Villa.
One of the glorious things about a ninety minute match is that anything can happen, anybody can beat anybody on their day. So, how could we fairly introduce this element of being “on your day” in overall data comparisons?
Well, what happens if we stop comparing Brighton to Liverpool and instead compare Brighton to Brighton and Liverpool to Liverpool? Stay with me here.
The comparison isn’t Brighton vs Liverpool any longer it’s (Past Brighton vs Present Brighton) vs (Past Liverpool vs Present Liverpool). Today-Salah, Mane & co. get to play before-Salah, Mane & co. And the same goes for Dunk, Propper and Gross. To win isn’t to be better than the opponent, it’s to be better than you were before.
How much have you progressed or regressed? How much have you changed?
And we don’t get to apply this to just individual games either. At the cost of my marbles we can arrive at overall numbers that update live, each weekend, with each game. A table, ranking every team on exactly how much they have changed, improved or worsened.
Me, September 2020 – December 2020
The results are filthily anti-sport. No longer is it all about who creates the best chances, scores the most goals or wins the most points. It’s about who can create more, score more and win more than they could before.
This is the realm of the tryer. Welcome to Change Rankings.
All rights reserved. Jack Elderton. 2020. Statistical input taken from Wyscout & Fbref (Statsbomb).
Jack Elderton 